What is going to happen to New York City real estate (and real estate across the country) now that Trump will be taking office? Well we actually just had a sales meeting to discuss it with our chief economist, Greg Heym. I would translate it as:
-nobody really knows what is going to happen yet.
-watch the stock market as a good indicator of how people are feeling (obviously moves much faster than the housing market though)
-there is some belief that as a businessman and as a real estate developer, Trump’s policies are likely to be pro business (de-regulation, etc) and likely to be pro real estate as well. (Hard to imagine Trump intentionally hurting his own interests).
-we believe there is a slight slow-down to the number of contracts signed just prior to the election that does not have to do with the very cyclical real estate market– (the holidays are always the slowest time of the year additionally).
In addition there is this from Mr. Heym directly, which I agree with:
“Comparable to the Brexit vote, the result of the election was unexpected, which causes uncertainty and fear. Some people will put off major purchases and investments, as they have strong opinions about what this means for the future. While no one can predict the future with certainty, we can look at what we know today:
- The residential market, particularly the high end, started slowing long before the election took place.
- Economic growth remains steady in both NYC and the US.
- Interest rates are still near historic lows.
- There is no reason to expect these factors will change solely due to the election results.
Over the next few weeks the anxiety should calm down as we return to the market we had before the election.”
REPORTS:
Click here for the October NYC Economic report:
http://media.bhsusa.com/pdf/bhs_heym_report_10_2016.pdf
Click here for the October Absorption Report:
http://media.bhsusa.com/pdf/BHS-Absorption-Report-oct-2016.pdf